Franklin & Marshall College Poll Release: October 2026

Dear Readers,

I’m writing to share our summary report for the October 2026 Franklin & Marshall College Poll. I’ve highlighted a few of the key findings below, but I encourage you to read the full report, which is attached. The poll explores the mood of Pennsylvania voters and their positions on a number of contemporary technology issues in addition to their ratings of state political figures. The full report includes cross-tab tables as attachments for four key questions, including personal financial well-being, job approval ratings for Governor Shapiro and President Trump, and feelings about the personal effects of Trump administration policies.

Thank you for reading, 

Berwood Yost

Key Findings

The October 2026 Franklin & Marshall College Poll finds that Pennsylvania’s registered voters are deeply concerned about their personal finances and similarly dissatisfied with President Trump’s performance. Voters say the economy (32%) is the most important problem facing the state, and this is the top concern of every partisan group. Among those who mention economic problems, Democrats lead Republicans as the party that can best handle the issue, 46% to 21%. Nearly half (45%) of respondents say they are “worse off” financially than a year ago (see Figure 1).

Almost nine in ten (85%) registered voters say they are “certain” to vote in the upcoming election, although only about half (56%) of them say they are “very interested” in the 2026 races. Democrats (63%) are currently more likely than Republicans (55%) to say they are “very interested” in the upcoming elections. The current pool of likely voters includes about one in seven (13%) registered voters who did not vote in the 2024 presidential election. These voters are overwhelmingly supporting Democratic candidates for governor and US Congress.

State Politics

Governor Shapiro’s job approval ratings are positive considering how much economic pessimism voters currently express. Slightly fewer voters believe he is doing an “excellent” or “good” job (44%) as governor as believe he is doing a “fair” or “poor” job (48%). The race for governor has changed little since June, with Governor Shapiro leading his Republican challenger, Stacy Garrity, 59% to 36%, among likely voters in the 2026 governor’s race.

Governor Shapiro’s advantage in the gubernatorial race is a result of both the general positive views that voters have of him and the relative anonymity of his Republican challenger, Stacy Garrity—two in five (42%) voters say they do not know enough about her to have an opinion. Garrity is relatively unknown even among Republican voters (see Figure 2). Shapiro is viewed more favorably (53%) than unfavorably (33%) among the state’s voters, while Garrity is viewed more unfavorably (35%) than favorably (22%).

The survey also included questions about contemporary issues related to flock cameras, vaccinations, and election integrity. The survey found that:

• More people believe that flock license plate cameras threaten civil liberties (61%) than believe they help solve crimes (32%). Majorities of Democrats (67%), independents (58%), and Republicans (54%) believe that flock cameras threaten civil liberties. Three in five (65%) registered voters oppose their use in local communities.

• Seven in ten (70%) registered voters believe the state should do more to encourage people to get vaccinated for communicable diseases, and four in five (80%) believe that vaccines are generally safe and effective. Republicans (49%) are less likely than Democrats (92%) or independents (72%) to think the state should be doing more to encourage vaccinations.

• Many voters express concerns about the integrity of the upcoming election, although those concerns differ by partisanship. Two thirds (65%) of registered voters are concerned that the postal service will fail to deliver mail-in ballots on time to be counted, half (52%) are concerned about widespread voter fraud, and two in five are concerned that non-citizens will vote (45%) and that federal agents will show up at polling places (44%). Democrats are more concerned about federal agents appearing at polling places, while Republicans are more concerned about voter fraud and non-citizen voting (see Figure 3).

Presidential Ratings

Fewer voters believe President Trump is doing an “excellent” or “good” job (29%) as president than believe he is doing a “fair” or “poor” job (70%), which is a sizable decline since our October 2025 poll when his positive approval rating was 41%. Only one in three (37%) registered voters believe that the President’s policies have helped them personally. Most Republicans (75%) think administration policies have helped them, but few Democrats (7%) or independent (31%) voters believe that. Republicans’ assessments about the personal effects of the president’s policies are consequential and are currently related to likelihood of voting. Among the 20 percent of Republicans who say President Trump’s policies have hurt them personally, only two in five (39%) are likely to vote. Among the 75 percent of Republicans who believe the president’s policies have helped them, three in five (58%) are likely to vote.

Democrats currently lead Republicans by 14 points among likely voters, 56% to 42%, in their preferences for the US House of Representatives.

Methodology

The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted October 7 - 18, 2026. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College. The data included in this release represent the responses of 808 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 340 Democrats, 331 Republicans, and 137 independents.^[1] The sample of voters was obtained from Aristotle. All sampled respondents were notified by mail about the survey. Interviews were completed over the phone and online depending on each respondent’s preference. Survey results were weighted (age, gender, education, geography, vote history, and party registration) using an iterative weighting algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics. Estimates for age, geography, and party registration are based on active voters within the Pennsylvania Department of State’s voter registration data. Gender and education are estimated using data from the November 2022 CPS Voter Registration Supplement.

The sample error for this survey is +/- 4.1 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered. The sample error for questions based on subgroups is larger and is +/- 5.6 percentage points for the likely voter sample. In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of non-sampling error. Generally speaking, two sources of error concern researchers most. Non-response bias is created when selected participants either choose not to participate in the survey or are unavailable for interviewing. Response errors are the product of the question and answer process. Surveys that rely on self-reported behaviors and attitudes are susceptible to biases related to the way respondents process and respond to survey questions.

 Note: This poll was supported by a gift from F&M Alumnus Brett Harwood, Class of ’71.

[1] The data reported here is voter REGISTRATION and is consistent with past reporting practices. The survey also asked about self-reported voter IDENTIFICATION, which shows a slightly different partisan split: 43% identify as Republican (n=339), 9% as independent (n=72), 45% as Democrat (n=353) and the balance not offering a response. Partisan comparisons in this summary show self-reported registration.