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Franklin & Marshall College

Electoral Context

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Franklin & Marshall College Poll Release: August 2026

Pennsylvanians are experiencing significant economic stress and are increasingly unhappy with President Trump. We examined affordability, data centers and technology, the president's performance on key issues, and voter preferences in the upcoming midterm election.

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Trump's Base and the 2026 Midterms

Will growing discontent among Trump voters hurt Republicans in the upcoming elections?

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Framing the 2026 Midterms

Our June newsletter takes a close look at the trends to watch when thinking about the upcoming midterm elections.

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A Tough Day for Republicans: Pennsylvania’s 2025 Municipal Election

Democrats increased their vote share across the country in the off-year elections, winning in many places where Trump was ahead a year ago. What happened? And what does this mean for the 2026 midterms?

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The One Big Beautiful Bill: Help or Hindrance to Republicans?

Although it cuts taxes, the One Big Beautiful Bill also significantly reduces Medicaid and SNAP benefits. Will this help or hurt Republicans in the 2026 midterms in Pennsylvania?

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Fracking and the Rightward Shift of Working Class Voters

The transition from coal to natural gas in Pennsylvania has been an important driver in shifting how working-class voters think about the Republican and Democratic parties.

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More of the Same: What the 2024 Election Results Tell us about Pennsylvania

Democrats experienced a deep loss in Pennsylvania in 2024. But does this mean the state--and the nation--are experiencing permanent political change? We analyze new data about voter behavior and the electoral landscape to answer this question.

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Thinking About Likely Voters

There have been many comments and questions about the likely voter data reported in the October F&M Poll, and how we define likely voters. In this post, we address the two most common questions.

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Polling the Presidential Race: Does Methodology Matter?

We explore how various methodologies may affect poll results, looking particularly at how different approaches to sampling and data collection seem to produce slightly different descriptions of the 2024 presidential race.

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Franklin & Marshall Poll Release: September 2024

This month’s poll of Pennsylvania registered voters finds that Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 49% - 46% in the presidential race. The poll also explores opinions on the economy, the direction of the state, and US foreign policy.