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Electoral Context

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Voters' Emotions and the 2024 Presidential Election

How will emotions--both positive and negative--about Biden and Trump affect the 2024 presidential election?

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Franklin & Marshall Poll Release: February 2024

Our new poll shows that the 2024 race between Biden and Trump is still close. Other results include the mood of Pennsylvania voters and their positions on marijuana legalization, gambling, and taxes on electric vehicles.

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The Upcoming Presidential Election: Looking Back to Look Ahead

What can the 2023 F&M polls tell us about what issues will loom large in the 2024 presidential election, and what voters think about the candidates?

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Who is Going to Vote Next Week?

We look at the October 2023 poll to find out what it can tell us about potential voter turnout in the upcoming municipal election, including which party is favored.

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The Trump Indictments

How will the Trump indictments factor into voters' preferences in the 2024 election? Right now, the data suggest a close race, with few historical precedents to guide our understanding of what might happen.

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Presidential Job Approval and Biden's Re-Election Chances in Pennsylvania

We compare President Biden's ratings with the ratings of other first-term governors and presidents in Pennsylvania to see what they tell us about his chances of carrying the state in 2024.

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Demographic, Attitudinal, and Electoral Changes in Pennsylvania Partisans Since 2000

We review some long-term trends in the partisan alignment of the state's voters, looking at demographic and attitudinal sorting, geographic realignment, and two issues--gun control and abortion. What does this mean for the state's electoral politics?

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Looking Ahead to the 2024 US Senate Race

What can the April F&M poll tell us about the relative appeal of the two Republicans who have discussed running in Pennsylvania? We take a look at Senator Casey's chances against both Doug Mastriano and David McCormick.

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Election Postmortem

What happened in the 2022 midterm elections in Pennsylvania and across the country? Did issues like the economy and abortion rights affect the outcome? How analysis of the F&M midterm polls can help in understanding the unexpected results.

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Pennsylvania 2022 Primary Election Preview

This month's newsletter looks at some rarely discussed features that might affect Pennsylvania's primary elections: regional turnout, endorsements, a candidate's county of residence, and a candidate's ballot position.