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Electoral Context

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The Trump Indictments

How will the Trump indictments factor into voters' preferences in the 2024 election? Right now, the data suggest a close race, with few historical precedents to guide our understanding of what might happen.

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Presidential Job Approval and Biden's Re-Election Chances in Pennsylvania

We compare President Biden's ratings with the ratings of other first-term governors and presidents in Pennsylvania to see what they tell us about his chances of carrying the state in 2024.

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Demographic, Attitudinal, and Electoral Changes in Pennsylvania Partisans Since 2000

We review some long-term trends in the partisan alignment of the state's voters, looking at demographic and attitudinal sorting, geographic realignment, and two issues--gun control and abortion. What does this mean for the state's electoral politics?

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Looking Ahead to the 2024 US Senate Race

What can the April F&M poll tell us about the relative appeal of the two Republicans who have discussed running in Pennsylvania? We take a look at Senator Casey's chances against both Doug Mastriano and David McCormick.

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Election Postmortem

What happened in the 2022 midterm elections in Pennsylvania and across the country? Did issues like the economy and abortion rights affect the outcome? How analysis of the F&M midterm polls can help in understanding the unexpected results.

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Pennsylvania 2022 Primary Election Preview

This month's newsletter looks at some rarely discussed features that might affect Pennsylvania's primary elections: regional turnout, endorsements, a candidate's county of residence, and a candidate's ballot position.

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Franklin & Marshall Poll Release: April 2022

Explore Pennsylvania voters' feelings about teaching critical race theory, discussing sexual orientation in schools, the economy, and the upcoming primary election.

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Franklin & Marshall Poll Release: March 2022

This month, we asked voters their feelings about the economy, gun control, privatization of state-owned liquor stores, amending the state constitution, and ratings for President Biden and Governor Wolf. We also discuss the electoral context for the 2022 midterm elections.

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Party Identification Shifted to Republicans in 2021

We review past political polls to set the context for the 2022 midterm elections. Can Democrats make up the ground they've lost to Republicans?

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Feeding the Goat

What can we learn about the upcoming 2022 midterm elections from Pennsylvania's 2021 municipal election? We look at county-level data to help answer this question.