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More of the Same: What the 2024 Election Results Tell us about Pennsylvania

Democrats experienced a deep loss in Pennsylvania in 2024. But does this mean the state--and the nation--are experiencing permanent political change? We analyze new data about voter behavior and the electoral landscape to answer this question.

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Did Trump Reverse the Voter Registration Tide or Ride It?

Pennsylvania's partisan voter registration has tightened over the last decade. But did Trump really drive the changes? And do they represent a durable realignment that advantages Republicans?

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2024 Pennsylvania Polling: Focusing on Performance in the Horse Race isn’t Good Enough

We explore how oversimplified postmortem polling assessments can be more harmful than helpful.

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Thinking About Likely Voters...

There have been many comments and questions about the likely voter data reported in the October F&M Poll, and how we define likely voters. In this post, we address the two most common questions.

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Franklin & Marshall Poll Release: October 2024

Both the presidential and senate races in Pennsylvania are neck-and-neck among likely voters in this month's poll, which also explores voters' positions on a number of campaign issues, including immigration, the economy, fracking, and abortion rights.

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Polling the Presidential Race: Does Methodology Matter?

We explore how various methodologies may affect poll results, looking particularly at how different approaches to sampling and data collection seem to produce slightly different descriptions of the 2024 presidential race.

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Franklin & Marshall Poll Release: September 2024

This month’s poll of Pennsylvania registered voters finds that Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 49% - 46% in the presidential race. The poll also explores opinions on the economy, the direction of the state, and US foreign policy.

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Who are the Undecided Voters? Are There Really Only 3%?

Close analysis of the data suggests there are more undecided voters out there than many pollsters think, and persuadable voters are defined along ideological and partisan lines.

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Franklin & Marshall Poll Release: August 2024

This month's poll shows Pennsylvania voters' opinions on the 2024 presidential and U.S. Senate races, cell phones in schools, voting reform, and the legal definition of marriage.

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Shapiro as Vice President?

Can the Pennsylvania governor help Kamala Harris win the presidency? We discuss why he's so popular and how his candidacy might resonate with U.S. voters.