Voter Behavior
The 2023 Municipal Election: Abortion Rights Likely Gave Democrats an Advantage
Turnout in Pennsylvania on November 7 was higher than expected, and Democrats won a race they had lost in 2021. We dig into the data to understand why.
Who is Going to Vote Next Week?
We look at the October 2023 poll to find out what it can tell us about potential voter turnout in the upcoming municipal election, including which party is favored.
Nationalization in Pennsylvania's 2022 Midterm Races
This month's newsletter examines split-district voting in Pennsylvania state house elections to see how much nationalization exists, and how this voter behavior has changed over time.
Untangling and Explaining Voter Preferences in Our 2022 Midterm Surveys
We review the 2022 F&M polls about the Pennsylvania midterm elections, discuss how the choices we made affected how we thought about the races, and consider the lessons we will remember for future surveys.
Election Postmortem
What happened in the 2022 midterm elections in Pennsylvania and across the country? Did issues like the economy and abortion rights affect the outcome? How analysis of the F&M midterm polls can help in understanding the unexpected results.
Undecided Voters
Discussion of how differently-worded questions in recent polls have led to different results regarding how many undecided voters there are in the 2022 election cycle.
Primary Polling in 2022
What are the limitations of primary election polling? We review political polls in the U.S. since 2000 to learn what polls can, and can't, tell us.
Party Identification Shifted to Republicans in 2021
We review past political polls to set the context for the 2022 midterm elections. Can Democrats make up the ground they've lost to Republicans?
Population and Voter Registration Changes in Pennsylvania Since 2000
Using recently released U.S. Census data, we examine how changes in Pennsylvania's rural and urban populations relate to changes in voting habits.