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Election Analysis

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The Upcoming Presidential Election: Looking Back to Look Ahead

What can the 2023 F&M polls tell us about what issues will loom large in the 2024 presidential election, and what voters think about the candidates?

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The 2023 Municipal Election: Abortion Rights Likely Gave Democrats an Advantage

Turnout in Pennsylvania on November 7 was higher than expected, and Democrats won a race they had lost in 2021. We dig into the data to understand why.

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Nationalization in Pennsylvania's 2022 Midterm Races

This month's newsletter examines split-district voting in Pennsylvania state house elections to see how much nationalization exists, and how this voter behavior has changed over time.

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New Resources about State Politics and Public Opinion

Learn about resources for understanding election polls and public opinion in Pennsylvania, including how to find survey data in the F&M Poll archive. Also read about a new book analyzing whether politics were more nationalized in the 2020 elections.

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Election Postmortem

What happened in the 2022 midterm elections in Pennsylvania and across the country? Did issues like the economy and abortion rights affect the outcome? How analysis of the F&M midterm polls can help in understanding the unexpected results.

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2022 Primary Recap: Turnout, Geography, and Issues

In the 2022 Pennsylvania primary elections, how did geography affect support for the candidates? What about voter turnout? And what did the polls say about the importance of issues such as the economy, abortion rights, and gun control?

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Pennsylvania 2022 Primary Election Preview

This month's newsletter looks at some rarely discussed features that might affect Pennsylvania's primary elections: regional turnout, endorsements, a candidate's county of residence, and a candidate's ballot position.

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Feeding the Goat

What can we learn about the upcoming 2022 midterm elections from Pennsylvania's 2021 municipal election? We look at county-level data to help answer this question.

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Does a Trump Endorsement Help or Hurt in Pennsylvania?

How does former President Trump's endorsement affect candidates in primary elections? We look at past races as well as the 2022 US Senate primary, in which Trump has endorsed Sean Parnell.

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Have Pennsylvania's Recent Voting Reforms Produced Less Down-Ballot Voting?

Did the 2019 voting reforms--specifically elimination of straight-party ticket voting--reduce the number of people who voted in down-ballot races in the 2020 election?