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A Tough Day for Republicans: Pennsylvania’s 2025 Municipal Election

Democrats increased their vote share across the country in the off-year elections, winning in many places where Trump was ahead a year ago. What happened? And what does this mean for the 2026 midterms?

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Franklin & Marshall Poll Release: October 2025

The first poll since the 2024 election explores a number of issues, including AI, democracy, and the state Supreme Court retention election, along with the mood of Pennsylvania's voters and their ratings of President Trump and Governor Shapiro.

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Is Pennsylvania Still a Swing State?

Democratic voter registrations are shrinking. We dive deeper into party switching data to see what this means for Pennsylvania's swing state status.

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The One Big Beautiful Bill: Help or Hindrance to Republicans?

Although it cuts taxes, the One Big Beautiful Bill also significantly reduces Medicaid and SNAP benefits. Will this help or hurt Republicans in the 2026 midterms in Pennsylvania?

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Fracking and the Rightward Shift of Working Class Voters

We argue that the transition from coal to natural gas in Pennsylvania has been an important driver in shifting how working-class voters think about the Republican and Democratic parties.

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More of the Same: What the 2024 Election Results Tell us about Pennsylvania

Democrats experienced a deep loss in Pennsylvania in 2024. But does this mean the state--and the nation--are experiencing permanent political change? We analyze new data about voter behavior and the electoral landscape to answer this question.

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Did Trump Reverse the Voter Registration Tide or Ride It?

Pennsylvania's partisan voter registration has tightened over the last decade. But did Trump really drive the changes? And do they represent a durable realignment that advantages Republicans?

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2024 Pennsylvania Polling: Focusing on Performance in the Horse Race isn’t Good Enough

We explore how oversimplified postmortem polling assessments can be more harmful than helpful.

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Thinking About Likely Voters

There have been many comments and questions about the likely voter data reported in the October F&M Poll, and how we define likely voters. In this post, we address the two most common questions.

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Franklin & Marshall Poll Release: October 2024

Both the presidential and senate races in Pennsylvania are neck-and-neck among likely voters in this month's poll, which also explores voters' positions on a number of campaign issues, including immigration, the economy, fracking, and abortion rights.